A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
