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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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